Dominate Like Shohei
Good hitting is 50% swing decisions, 50% swing mechanics. Shohei Ohtani's NLCS Game 4 performance shows what happens when you nail swing decisions — and when you don't.
READ TIME: ∼5 MINUTES | WORDS: 1,108
* Watch out for the video version of this article in the coming weeks *WHY IT MATTERS
The BAR hitter dashboard helps find the patterns and tendencies Shohei exploited to dominate the Brewers on both sides of the ball.
See how each pitch moves: Movement Profile shows the up/down and in/out break for every pitch a pitcher throws.
Learn what’s likely coming in each count: Pitch Type by Count breaks down what a pitcher likes to throw and where, based on the count in the at-bat.
Find your zones to hunt: Expected wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average) by Pitch Location identifies a hitter’s most productive zones while giving an idea of where the pitcher will likely attack them.
SHO-TIME: INSIDE OHTANI’S NLCS GAME 4 TAKEOVER
Let’s look at Game 4 through the eyes of Shohei — and some Brewers hitters who faced him — using the BAR hitter dashboard to reveal how Shohei delivered the most complete performance in MLB history.
3 Home Runs
The Movement Profile, Pitch Type by Count, and xwOBA by Pitch Location visuals each provide a piece of the puzzle to game-planning for the best swing decisions.
➞ Leadoff HR vs Quintana
- Movement Profile: Jose Quintana’s sinker stays up and runs in on lefties more than the typical MLB sinker.
He throws it more than half the time to lefties, mixing in a four-seam fastball with similar movement/velocity, and a slurve with above-average break that also stays up more than usual.
- Pitch Type by Count: In 3-2 counts (where Shohei first homered), Quintana’s sinker/four-seamer usage spikes while slurve usage drops.
Combined with the two most frequent pitch locations, we can determine Quintana likely attacks with velocity middle/in or a slurve middle/out.
- xwOBA by Pitch Location: Despite a smaller hot zone vs lefties compared to all pitchers, the xwOBA heatmap shows that even the locations where Shohei cools off, he still outperforms the league.
- The Plan: Knowing Quintana’s pitch movement and tendencies in 3-2 counts, Shohei can protect the zone while hunting Quintana’s pitches that come back over the plate.
➞ Out of the stadium vs Patrick
- Movement Profile: Chad Patrick throws 84% fastball variations — a four-seam and sinker with above-average run from lefties, plus a cutter that cuts more than usual.
When he does throw something soft, it’s a changeup with heavy arm-side run.
- Pitch Type by Count: You never want to be in a 3-1 count to Shohei, but especially not Patrick when his pitch mix and location become more predictable.
It’s cutters down & in or sinkers that come back over the inside part of the plate to lefties.
- xwOBA by Pitch Location: Shohei’s heatmap shows deep, dark reds on the inside parts of the plate, exactly where Patrick likes to go in 3-1 counts — that should tell you everything you need to know.
- The Plan: Hunt for inside velocity.
➞ The hat trick vs Megill
- Movement Profile: A true two-pitch pitcher, Trevor Megill throws a 98-100mph four-seam fastball with exceptional rise 63% of the time to lefties and a knuckle curve with below-average break the rest of the time.
- Pitch Type by Count: Megill had the advantage in a 1-2 count, where his pitch mix is less predictable (four-seam 53%, knuckle curve 47%).
But he clearly doesn’t attack in & off the plate to lefties in this count and repeatedly misses in the heart of the zone.
- xwOBA by Pitch Location: Again, looking at Shohei’s intimidating heatmap, this immediately warns that Megill is toast if he ends up throwing something in the very spot he’s prone to in this count.
- The Plan: With only two pitches to worry about, Megill’s tendency to miss over the plate and rarely bust lefties inside lets Shohei set his eyes on the heart of the zone, then just see the ball and react.
10 Strikeouts
Using the same visuals, the BAR hitter dashboard shows Shohei’s pitch mix, movement, and how he struck out the side in the first inning — setting the tone for the rest of the game.
➞ Shohei’s Stuff
- Movement Profile: Good luck to righties. Shohei throws his 98–100 mph four-seam fastball and his devastating sweeper at nearly identical rates — the latter breaking up to 20”, compared to the standard 6” to 10”.
Lefty batters have it slightly easier. They’ll see a four-seamer 44% of the time, but after that, Shohei’s cutter, slider, and elite curveball all show up at nearly equal rates.
➞ Shohei Blows Chourio Away
- Pitch Type by Count: You don’t want to be down 0-2 against Shohei. Righties now have to be just as ready for the slider as the four-seamer or sweeper.
Location-wise, he’s living down & away with breakers, up and away with heat.
- xwOBA by Pitch Location: That’s a problem for Chourio. His heatmap reveals his weakest zone is up & away — exactly where Shohei likes to go.
- The Plan: Chourio needs to bear down and be ready to battle on the outside edge. Or else it’s light out.
➞ Shohei Paints vs Yelich
- Pitch Type by Count: In 2-2 counts, lefties lose their edge in Shohei’s pitch mix. Now it’s 58% four-seamer or slider, and 34% curveball or sweeper.
Along with four pitches to defend, they have to cover the whole zone — though Shohei tends to dot the down and away.
- xwOBA by Pitch Location: Bad news, again. The heatmap shows Yelich has a soft spot where Shohei likes to go in this count.
- The Plan: Yelich also needs to bear down and battle, but focus more down & away than Chourio. Or else it’s light out, again.
➞ Shohei Makes Contreras Chase
- Pitch Type by Count: Another 0-2 count, Contreras now faces the same issues Chourio did.
- xwOBA by Pitch Location: Rough. Contreras’ heatmap shows glaring holes down & away, and up & in. Remember where Shohei likes to go in 0-2 counts?
- The Plan: Contreras better get ready to go play defense.
THE BOTTOM LINE
This look at Shohei’s NLCS Game 4 through the BAR hitter dashboard shows how you can game plan to make better swing decisions.
That’s half the battle in good hitting.
Who should I break down next?
Let me know which hitter performance or hitter/pitcher matchup you want broken down in the BAR hitter dashboard.