El Mago's Disappearing Act

Like any good magician, Javy Baez burst onto the scene, then vanished. But the trick is never complete until the magician reappears.

READ TIME: ∼4 MINUTES | WORDS: 899

Update as of 10/09/2025
Watch the BAR video breakdown of Javy Baez:

ZOOM OUT: NOW YOU SEE JAVY

I first saw it in 2013: a grainy MiLB clip titled "Javier Baez 4th Home Run Daytona Cubs." A moonshot from a whippy swing with extreme movements.

• Once a full-time Chicago Cub from 2016-2021, the most aggressive bat tip I'd ever seen led Javy to rank near the top of MLB in maximum exit velocity (Max EV), average exit velocity (Top 8th EV Average), and bat speed (Bat Speed).

Max EV

• Highest recorded speed of a ball off a hitter's bat.

Top 8th EV Average

• Average exit velocity of a hitter's top 12.5% of hardest batted balls.

Bat Speed

• Estimated in-game bat speed derived from the top 12.5% of exit velocities.

• Uses the top 8th EV Average and Robert K. Adair's model for deriving bat speed from exit velocity.

• 2021 Season (Cubs 91 games; Mets 47 games)

  • Max EV: 96th percentile

  • Top 8th EV Average: 94th percentile

  • Bat Speed: 94th percentile
    

• No surprise: Javy's violent swing mashes baseballs and generates impressive bat speed.
  

• Surprise: he did it while making better swing decisions and finding more barrels than the rest of the league.

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ZOOM IN: NOW YOU DON’T

At the 2021 Trade Deadline, El Mago moved his act to New York before signing an offseason deal with the Detroit Tigers (2022-2027).

• Despite a spellbinding walk-off winner on Opening Day, it would soon be clear that Javy left some magic behind in Chicago.

One sign was the drop in Javy's ability to routinely hit balls with an optimal exit velocity and launch angle — otherwise known as a Barrel.

• After hovering around the 90th percentile since 2018, Javy's percentage of hits that qualified as a barrel (Barrel%) slid to the 67th percentile in his first year with Detroit (2022).

• From there, the descent continued, dropping to the 35th percentile in 2025 (as of 8/31).

Barrel%

• The rate at which a player's batted balls have an exit velocity and launch angle that has resulted in a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since 2015, when Statcast was implemented MLB-wide.
  

• Starts at 98mph with 26-30º; widens 1º per side with every +1mph until reaching 8-50º at 116mph+.

But it wasn't the balls Javy was hitting that gave him away. It was the balls he was swinging at with no chance of hitting that marked El Mago's disappearance.

• Those swings are jarring, given that Javy's ability to swing or not at quality pitches (xwSwingDecisions) hadn't ranked below the 95th percentile since his first full year as a Cubbie.
  

xwSwingDecisions

• The expected runs gained or lost above average by swinging/not swinging at a given pitch.

• League-adjusted; 0 = MLB average (the higher the better).

• Javy's last four seasons in Chicago (xwSwingDecisions)

  • 2018: 99th percentile

  • 2019: 98th percentile

  • 2020: 95th percentile

  • 2021: 98th percentile
    

• Javy's first four seasons in Detroit (xwSwingDecisions)

  • 2022: 90th percentile

  • 2023: 81st percentile

  • 2024: 34th percentile

  • 2025 (as of 8/31): 64th percentile

Javy's swing decisions have trended back in the right direction this season — perhaps the murmurs of El Mago's return are no coincidence.

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EL MAGO REAPPEARS?

The first half of the 2025 season saw excitement for El Mago returning to form. Plus, a renewed energy for his defense, thanks to a move to center field.

By the dog days, Javy's underlying hitting metrics, although rebounding in some areas, show we are still waiting for the actual return of Chicago's El Mago.

• Javy's hitting style has never allowed him to be particularly precise with his swing — topping out around the 60th percentile with his swing efficiency (Smash Factor) even in his best years with the Cubs.
  

Smash Factor

• Borrowed from the golf world via Driveline Baseball, measures the efficiency of a hitter's contact with a batted ball or series of batted balls.

• Superior to other contact quality metrics (line drive percentage, hard hit rate, whiff percentage, etc) because it controls for a hitter's bat speed.

  • According to Driveline, most batted balls have a Smash Factor between 0.9 and 1.2 (the higher the better contact quality).

• But, as a Tiger, Javy's Smash Factor has been toward the bottom of the league.

  • 2022: 11th percentile

  • 2023: 16th percentile

  • 2024: 8th percentile

  • 2025 (as of 8/31): 22nd percentile
    

If paying attention, you noticed the tick up in both Smash Factor and xwSwingDecisions this season.

Which is interesting considering that Javy is indeed having his best season in Detroit so far, yet the other four previously discussed metrics are at all-time lows for him.

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THE BIG PICTURE

To paraphrase the greatest hitter who ever lived—Ted Williams—effective hitting is 50% "proper thinking" and 50% "hitting to your style".

• Let's call it 50% swing decisions and 50% mechanics.
  

That aligns with our Javy analysis, as he’s been able to improve his stats in 2025, despite only performing above-average in xwSwingDecisions.

• Ultimately, this type of analysis alone doesn't help a hitter actually improve.
  

• Future installments of BAR will dive into analyses that can help you make better swing decisions (hitter game planning) and take better swings (swing design).