Do Something, Blue Jays
The American League lacks dominant teams as star players continue to migrate to the National League. With Soto following suit & the rest of their division teetering, the AL is up for the taking...
READ TIME: ∼11 MINUTES | WORDS: 2,210 WRITER’S NOTE: this article was written just prior to the contract extension reached by Vladdy Jr. and the Blue Jays on April 7, 2025.
Yankees: Already scrambling after Soto’s departure, the influx of injuries to centerpiece players leaves lots of uncertainty in the Bronx.
Red Sox: It’s only a matter of time before the BoSox take a leap forward, but they’re still young and mostly unproven — while position/performance drama grows and orbits (a)round their homegrown star.
Orioles: The hype was real for a minute, but last year’s regression, doubts about their top prospect, and lack of moves this offseason have raised questions about what’s next for Baltimore.
Rays: You admittedly can never sleep on the Rays, but we certainly seem to be beyond their magic era of the past.
Despite this apparent window to step up, the Toronto Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerro Jr.’s self-imposed Opening Day deadlines to agree on a contract extension have come and gone.
But, as you can hear from Ken Rosenthal, these deadlines are fake, and the Blue Jays desperately need to make a move ↓
WHY IT MATTERS
The Blue Jays are in a prime position to become one of the AL's dominant forces despite their underwhelming 2024 season.
Roster flexibility: Only four players signed through 2026 (prior to the Alejando Kirk extension on Opening Day)
Revenue streams: "Canada's team" boasts strong TV deals and revenues while off-season renovations to the Rogers Centre are set to boost income further.
Fan engagement: Passionate but wavering due to recent plateaus and uncertainty about the future of their homegrown stars — Vladdy Jr. and Bo Bichette.
Investment capability: Recent free-agent pursuits (Ohtani and Soto) show an ability and willingness to invest in the roster.
THE BIG PICTURE
Landing coveted free agents like George Springer in the past required clarity in the team's future — recent misses point to a perception of instability.
➞ Vladdy Determines the Blue Jays’ Future
He's not just a star; he's Canadian, the franchise cornerstone, and deeply connected to fans.
Committing to Vladdy signals that Toronto is a destination for players.
Vladdy is on a Hall of Fame trajectory — extending him now helps solidify our future outlook.
Despite some expected ups and downs since debuting in 2019, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has firmly established himself as one of MLB's premier offensive players with an elite combination of approach, power, and swing quality.
Plate Discipline: Vladdy's K% (15.6%) is exceptional for a power hitter —outperforming Freeman, Tucker, Soto, Harper, and Judge.
BB/K ratio (0.63, 22nd overall since 2019) ranks alongside Harper, Tucker, and Betts.
Whiff% compares favorably to Soto, Alvarez, and Machado — significantly outperforming sluggers like Judge, Ohtani, and Alonso.
Swing Metrics: Vladdy leads MLB in Hard Hits (95+ mph) since his debut and maintains a Hard Hit% trailing only Judge, Acuña Jr, and Alvarez.
Max Exit Velocity (118.9 mph, 6th) and Avg. Exit Velocity (92.8 mph, 8th) put him among MLB's most feared sluggers, including Stanton, Tatis Jr., Schwarber, and Ohtani.
Expected Stats: The strength of Vladdy's underlying swing is reflected further in his career xwOBA (.378), xSLG (.567), and DRC+ (135).
Ranking him consistently among the league's best hitters, even in his "down" years.
Vladdy's expected results match Judge, Soto, Alvarez, Ohtani, Harper, Freeman, Tucker, and Witt Jr.
Weighted/Adjusted Offense: Vladdy's actual production confirms the impact of his swing metrics and expected results.
He ranks in the top 14 in wOBA (.367, 14th), wRC+ (137, 12th), Batting Runs (154.6, 9th), and OPS+ (137, 10th).
Placing him among MLB's most productive hitters alongside Judge, Soto, Ohtani, Harper, Freeman, Betts, Alvarez, Acuña Jr., Trout, and Tucker.
Consistency & Resurgence: Despite inconsistent results, Vladdy's consistently elite approach and swing have fueled career results most similar to Hall of Famer Eddie Murray (936.6, Bill James' Similarity Scores).
His 2024 resurgence (5+ fWAR, 6+ bWAR, 6+ WARP, ~.400 wOBA, 160+ wRC+) reaffirmed his potential to become one of MLB's all-time hitters.
BY THE NUMBERS
A recent article by Mike Petriello, MLB.com writer and Director of Stats & Research, places Vladdy among a group of young stars on the path to the Hall of Fame — citing his 17 career fWAR.
➞ Building on this, we leveraged two industry-standard projection systems, Steamer and Depth Charts, to map that potential Hall of Fame path through Valddy's age-40 season.
Projection Methodology: Leveraging Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning (AI/ML), Tom Tango's regression toward the mean, and Jonathan Judge's general additive model (GAM) Across aging curve were applied to three datasets to project Vladdy’s stats through the 2039 season:
(1) Vladdy's 2019–2024 statistics
(2) Vladdy's 2019–2024 statistics + Steamer 2025
(3) Vladdy's 2019–2024 statistics + Depth Charts 2025.
➞ Weighting and averaging the three projections gave us a comprehensive outlook for Vladdy's career stats from 2019 through the 2039 season.
Hall of Fame Case: Confirming Petriello, our projections give Vladdy a career fWAR of 71.81 — just beyond the typical Hall of Fame range of 50-70.
Good for 56th all-time using today's rankings and directly behind Eddie Murray (72 fWAR).
Making Murray Vladdy's most similar player through age 25 and according to his projected career stats.
Other Projected Career Totals of Note:
3,317 H: 12th all-time.
534 HR: T-19th all-time.
1,735 R: 25th all-time.
1,804 RBI: 23rd all-time.
133 wRC+: T-130th all-time.
Slash Line: .348 OBP / .475 SLG / .339 wOBA.
KEEP VLADDY IN TORONTO
The following are three potential contract proposals to keep Vladdy in Toronto long-term:
1) Bottom Tier | Most Team Friendly
Length: 14 years (2025–2038)
Guaranteed: $385,000,000
Deferrals: 10% of each guaranteed year's salary, paid 2039–2048 (no interest)
Opt‐Out: None
No‐Trade Clause: Partial (10‐team block), expands to full at 10-and-5
Team Options: 2037 & 2038 at $25,000,000 each vs. $10,000,000 buyout each
Projected Value: ∼$7.025M per win (54.8 WAR projected over 14 seasons)
Below the $8.5M cost per WAR found by Ben Clemens
Salary Structure
Signing Bonus: $10,000,000 (split $5M in 2025, $5M in 2026)
Base Salaries (2025–2036): $355,000,000 total; each year has 10% deferred, 90% paid at the time.
If Both Options Declined: Vladdy receives 2 × $10M = $20M in buyouts, plus the earlier $365M (base + bonus).
Total Guaranteed: $385,000,000
CBT AAV: $385M ÷ 14 ≈ $27.5M
Incentives
Plate Appearances: +$1M at 550 PA, +$1M at 600PA (max $2M/year)
Awards: $1M for MVP win, $500k for top‐3 finish
Postseason: $1M for ALCS victory, $1M for WS victory (max $2M/year)
Potential Total
Team Options: If exercised at $25M each instead of $10M buyouts, Vladdy would gain $30M above the guaranteed amount.
Incentives: Over 14 years, a maximum of $70M is possible if all performance bonuses are triggered annually — conservative estimate assuming strong but not perfect performance lands between $15M–$25M in total bonuses.
Rough Grand Total: $385M + $30M + ~$20M = $435M (no upper cap, just an estimate).
➞ Vladdy's Acceptance: 4/10
Pros: Long-term security at $385M is still enormous.
Cons: Extremely lengthy (14 years), no opt-out, partial deferrals (10%). Lower annual cash flow and no chance to re-test free agency in his prime.
➞ Blue Jays' Favorability: 8/10
Pros: Low(ish) AAV ($27.5M for CBT), partial deferrals, no opt-out. The club secures a franchise cornerstone for nearly his entire career on a predictable budget.
Cons: Significant total outlay and 14-year commitment if performance declines.
2) Mid Tier | Soto-Style Deal
Length: 12 years (2025–2036)
Guaranteed: $425,000,000
Deferrals: 0%
Opt‐Out: After Year 7 (2031), team can void opt-out by increasing salaries by $5M/year in 2032–2036.
No‐Trade Clause: Full from Day 1
Team Options: 2035 & 2036 at $40,000,000 each vs. $15,000,000 buyout each
Projected Value: ∼$7.9M per win (53.62 WAR projected over 12 seasons)
Salary Structure
Signing Bonus: $15,000,000 ($10M in 2025, $5M in 2026)
Base Salaries (2025–2034): $380,000,000
If Team Declines 2035–36: 2 × $15M = $30M => total $425M (with the $15M bonus included).
CBT AAV: $425M ÷ 12 ≈ $35.4M
Incentives
Plate Appearances: +$2M at 550 PA, +$1M at 600PA (max $3M/year)
Awards: $1M for MVP win, $500k for top‐3 finish
Postseason: $1M for ALCS victory, $2M for WS victory (max $3M/year)
Potential Total
Team Options: Exercising both at $40M each instead of $15M buyouts yields an additional $50M above the guaranteed amount.
Incentives: Over 12 years, a maximum of $84M is possible if bonuses are maxed out each season — a realistic scenario based on regular All-Star–level production and team contention would yield $20M–$35M in bonuses.
Rough Grand Total: $425M + $50M + ~$30M = $505M (no upper cap, just an estimate).
➞ Vladdy's Acceptance: 6/10
Pros: High guaranteed ($425M), shorter term (12 years) than the low-tier deal, no deferrals, and a mid-contract opt-out that forces the team to pay more or let him walk.
Cons: Still a lengthy contract; if he prefers an even earlier opt-out or an even bigger headline figure, he may hold out for more.
➞ Blue Jays' Favorability: 7/10
Pros: They get Vlad for at least 7 years and can void the opt-out if they're willing to pay a higher salary afterward. No deferrals keep future liabilities simple.
Cons: Higher AAV ($35.4M) from Day 1, plus the club risks losing him at the opt-out point or increasing salary obligations significantly.
3) Top Tier | Ohtani-Style Deal
Length: 10 years (2025–2034)
Guaranteed: $495,000,000
Deferrals: 70% of each nominal salary (no interest), paid 2035–2049
Opt‐Out: After Year 4 (2028), Blue Jays can void by adding $5M/year for 2029–2034
No‐Trade Clause: Full from Day 1
Team Option: 2035 at $50,000,000 vs. $10,000,000 buyout
Projected Value: ∼$9.7M per win (50.84 WAR projected over 10 seasons)
Salary Structure
Nominal Salary: $49,500,000 annually × 10 = $495,000,000
Current Payment Each Year: 30% of $49.5M = $14,850,000
Deferred Each Year: 70% = $34,650,000 (paid 2035–2049)
CBT AAV: $495M ÷ 10 = $49.5M
If the team declines in 2035, Vladddy will receive a $10,000,000 buyout and still collect all deferred amounts. The guarantee is $495M.
Incentives
Plate Appearances: +$3M at 550 PA
MVP: $2M for MVP win, $1M for top‐3 finish
Postseason: $2M for ALCS MVP, $3M for WS MVP (max $5M/year)
Potential Total
Team Option (2035): $50M vs. $10M buyout = +$40M if exercised.
Incentives: Over 10 years, a maximum of $100M in bonuses is possible if Vladdy consistently posts elite seasons and racks up awards — a strong but flawed outcome would realistically yield $50M–$70M in total incentives.
Rough Grand Total: $495M + $40M + ~$60M = $595M (no cap).
➞ Vladdy's Acceptance: 7/10
Pros: Massive headline sum ($495M). Early opt-out after Year 4 means a second bite at free agency unless the team bumps his pay. Even with deferrals, he sets a historic benchmark in nominal total.
Cons: Actual annual cash-in-hand is only 30% of $49.5M — no interest added.
➞ Blue Jays' Favorability: 7/10
Pros: Extremely high nominal figure but minimal present payroll impact (only $14.85M/year in real time). The team can keep building around Vladdy ASAP.
Cons: Huge deferred liability. If Vladdy declines or gets injured, still on the hook for massive sums down the road. The early opt-out also provides less long-term certainty than the other deals.
➞ Best Choice
While the top-tier proposal carries long-term liabilities, its short-term benefits are undeniable.
Vladdy can tout the headline of potential to exceed $560M, while heavy deferrals provide payroll flexibility—absorbing just $14.85M/season—freeing resources to strengthen the roster elsewhere.
Combining these advantages with the opportunity to make Vladdy a lifelong Blue Jay makes this our best choice.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The Blue Jays face a pivotal moment.
The American League lacks dominant teams and star players, the AL East is in flux, and the face of the franchise projects to be one of MLB's all-time great hitters.
But he could be on the verge of leaving in free agency — which would be especially catastrophic with rumors already linking him to both the Red Sox and Yankees.
A long-term extension for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is essential.
GO DEEPER
In using AI/ML, I acknowledge the likelihood of significant errors in projecting Vladdy’s future stats.
If this were more than a mere thought exercise, more vigor would be applied to verify proper calculations and model training.
➞ Career Projection Weightings
25% projection from Vladdy's 2019–2024 statistics
37.5% projection from Vladdy's 2019–2024 statistics + Steamer 2025
37.5% projection from Vladdy's 2019–2024 statistics + Depth Charts 2025
➞ Full Career Projections
➞ Top 10 Most Similar Based on Career Projections (Using Bill James' Similarity Score Formula)
Eddie Murray (891), 72.0 career fWAR
Rafael Palmeiro (846), 70.0 Career fWAR
Miguel Cabrera (840), 68.8 Career fWAR
Carl Yastrzemski (833), 94.8 Career fWAR
Dave Winfield (814), 59.9 Career fWAR
Adrian Beltre (784), 83.5 Career fWAR
Albert Pujols (774), 89.9 Career fWAR
David Ortiz (748), 51.0 Career fWAR
Frank Robinson (745), 104.0 Career fWAR
Reggie Jackson (728), 72.7 Career fWAR